Increased volatility, supportive U.S. economic policies, higher acceptance of digital assets, continued efforts of the exchange players to go beyond only trading activity, and increased retail trading are factors that will shape the future of exchanges.在这个不断变化的格局中，让我们找出哪家公司更能实现长期增长——Coinbase Global Inc。 COIN 还是 CME 集团 CME？ Coinbase, the largest regulated cryptocurrency exchange in the United States, is well-positioned to capitalize on increased market volatility and rising digital asset valuations.另一方面，就交易量和交易名义价值而言，芝商所是世界上最大的期货交易所。 A strong global presence, a compelling product portfolio, focus on over-the-counter clearing services and a solid capital position make CME well-positioned for growth.两者都是加密货币市场增长的主要受益者。
COIN 的案例
Coinbase is progressing toward its goal of becoming an "everything exchange," offering round-the-clock access to digital assets, commodities, equities and derivatives through a unified platform. Supporting this strategy, the company recently broadened its crypto derivatives portfolio with gold (GOLD-PERP) and silver (SILVER-PERP) perpetual futures. Coinbase 还获得了货币监理署有条件批准建立国家信托银行。 This regulatory milestone could strengthen its position within the financial-services industry and reflects the increasing convergence of digital assets and traditional banking.国际扩张仍然是另一个关键的增长动力。 Coinbase operates across several markets, including Australia, Brazil, India, Japan, Singapore, the United Kingdom, Switzerland and the European Union.其不断扩大的地理足迹使收入来源多样化并减少了对美国市场的依赖。该公司还通过额外的加密货币和代币化股票来扩展其产品组合。 Recent initiatives include regulated European futures for Bitcoin, Solana and equity indexes, along with stock and ETF trading in the United States, positioning Coinbase to compete more directly with diversified fintech brokerages. In 2026, management intends to prioritize real-world asset perpetuals, specialized exchanges, advanced trading products, decentralized finance infrastructure, and AI- and robotics-related innovations. However, Coinbase remains exposed to crypto-market volatility, rising operating costs, impairment charges and restructuring expenses during periods of weaker digital-asset prices, despite its strong liquidity and relatively modest leverage.
The Case for CME
CME Group provides critical financial infrastructure for global risk management across interest rates, equity indexes, foreign exchange, energy, agricultural commodities and digital assets.其广泛的资产类别、持续的产品创新和向新市场的扩张支持了良好的长期增长前景。电子交易量不断上升，而对加密货币相关产品的需求持续扩大。 A potentially more supportive U.S. regulatory environment for digital assets under President Trump's second administration could encourage greater institutional participation and further strengthen activity in CME's crypto derivatives.芝商所的有机增长能力是一个主要的竞争优势。 Market volatility generally increases the need for hedging and risk management, driving higher trading volumes and, consequently, clearing and transaction fee revenues.这种结构使公司能够从不同市场环境的不确定性中受益。来自清算服务和市场数据订阅的经常性收入提供了额外的收入稳定性。强大的网络效应进一步巩固了芝商所的市场地位。 The deep liquidity available in its benchmark contracts attracts more traders, strengthens price discovery and creates significant barriers for competing exchanges.严格的投资和成本控制正在支持利润率的扩张。 CME generates industry-leading operating margins and substantial free cash flow, allowing it to return capital through dividends and share repurchases while preserving balance-sheet strength.近几个季度自由现金流转换率超过 85%，也表明了较高的盈利质量。然而，芝商所的交易收入的很大一部分仍然依赖于利率和股票产品。 Intensifying competition from crypto exchanges, alternative financial instruments, electronic communication networks and bank-owned trading venues, potentially amplified by regulatory changes, could put pressure on its market share.
COIN 和 CME 的预估
Zacks 对 COIN 2026 年收入的一致估计意味着同比增长 18.8%，而每股收益则意味着同比增长 69%。过去 7 天，每股收益预期下降了 12%。
Zacks 对 CME 2026 年收入的一致估计意味着增长 7.9%，而 EPS 的一致估计则表明同比增长 9.6%。估计过去 7 天没有任何变化。
COIN 和 CME 的价格表现
COIN 股价一个月内下跌 13.3%，而 CME 股价同期上涨 13.4%。
COIN 和 CME 股票贵吗？
Coinbase 的远期 12 个月市盈率为 45.94 倍，高于过去五年的中位数 31.74。芝商所的远期 12 个月市盈率为 21.11，低于过去三年 22.96 的中位数。
结论
Coinbase 受益于多元化的收入基础，包括交易费、质押、托管服务和衍生品，所有这些都受到不断增长的机构需求的支撑。这家加密货币领导者不遗余力地成为任何数字资产交易或提供与加密货币或数字资产相关的金融服务的一站式目的地。鉴于其在新兴市场拓展期货产品、实现衍生品产品线多元化和全球影响力的努力、其场外交易产品、增加的电子交易、通过联盟进行交叉销售、强大的全球影响力和稳固的流动性状况，芝商所已做好了增长的有利条件。 CME 的 Zacks 排名#3（持有），而 COIN 的 Zacks 排名#4（卖出）。 CME 的价格升值、估值和近期增长前景使其领先于 COIN。您可以在此处查看今日 Zacks 排名第一（强力买入）股票的完整列表。
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本文最初发表于 Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com)。
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