原文：21shares trims 2026 crypto forecasts despite institutional adoption gains
Asset manager 21shares sees crypto infrastructure advancing faster than prices, as ETFs, stablecoins and prediction markets mature while several 2026 targets slip.
Asset manager 21shares has scaled back several of its bullish forecasts for the crypto industry this year, saying institutional adoption continues to strengthen even as weak market conditions and muted retail participation have slowed the pace of growth.
In its midyear outlook, the asset manager said the industry’s underlying infrastructure has advanced more quickly than prices. Areas such as exchange-traded funds (ETFs), stablecoin regulation, tokenization and prediction markets have continued to mature, but weaker crypto prices, major DeFi exploits and slower-than-expected enterprise adoption have pushed several of its 2026 targets out of reach.
One of the report’s clearest conclusions was that Bitcoin’s (BTC) four-year market cycle remains intact, despite signs the asset class is becoming more institutionally driven.
“After peaking at around $126,000 in October 2025, Bitcoin pulled back sharply and has continued to trade in line with prior post-halving patterns,” the analysts wrote, arguing that institutional ownership has softened market drawdowns but has not fundamentally altered Bitcoin’s cyclical behavior.
Bitcoin’s predictable four-year cycle continues to be a major driver of market conditions. Source: 21shares
Former 21shares co-founder Ophelia Snyder, who departed the company following its acquisition by FalconX in 2025, recently made a similar observation about how institutional investors have reshaped crypto markets.
“The investor base is larger, more institutional, and more connected to the broader financial system," Snyder wrote in a recent Substack post. “As a result, competing narratives, geopolitical developments, and macroeconomic shifts all have a much larger impact on crypto pricing than they once did.”
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